Base Rate Fallacy

Other Names

Base rate neglect, prosecutor's fallacy


Statistics can convey vital information, but are often ignored because they are not emotionally captivating, or because the audience does not fully understand how to interpret them. To ignore relevant statistical evidence in favor of irrelevant evidence is called statistignorance or the base rate fallacy.


The doctor says that given my family history, I will need to change my diet or I will risk heart disease. But I haven't had any problems yet so I think there is no need to change what has always worked for me.

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